ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IN 6-MONTHS?

LATEST PROMISE PREDICTION WE ARE IN FOR 100-TRILLION ECONOMIC COLLAPSE IN 6-MONTHS. 3 cents on the dollar production.

 MISERY INDEX

WHAT IS THE MISERY INDEX?

THE MISERY INDEX IS AN ECONOMIC INDICATOR DESIGNED TO HELP DETERMINE HOW THE AVERAGE CITIZEN IS DOING ECONOMICALLY AND IT IS CALCULATED BY SIMPLY ADDING THE INFLATION RATE TO THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.

SINCE BOTH HIGH UNEMPLOYMENT AND HIGH INFLATION ARE MAJOR FACTORS TO THE AVERAGE WAGE EARNER, IT’S A QUICK AND DIRTY METRIC TO GAUGE THE HEALTH OF THE ECONOMY BECAUSE AS INFLATION RISES THE COST OF LIVING INCREASES AND AS UNEMPLOYMENT RISES MORE PEOPLE CROSS THE ECONOMIC LINE INTO POVERTY.

UNFORTUNATELY,  ALTHOUGH DATA FOR THE ANNUAL INFLATION RATE  IS AVAILABLE BACK TO 1914 (THE CPI INDEX BEGAN IN 1913) DATA FOR THE MISERY INDEX IS ONLY AVAILABLE BACK TO 1948 DUE TO THE LACK OF UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS PRIOR TO 1948.

THE ORIGINAL MISERY INDEX WAS CREATED BY ECONOMIST ARTHUR OKUN DURING THE JOHNSON ADMINISTRATION IN THE 1960’S, NOT BY ROBERT BARRO AS SOME PEOPLE MISTAKENLY BELIEVE. BARRO CREATED THE “BARRO MISERY INDEX” (BMI) IN 1999, WHICH ALSO INCLUDES INTEREST RATES AND GDP TREND INTO THE MIX.

 GROWTH IN GDP REDUCES THE MISERY.

INTERESTINGLY, WHEN THE ORIGINAL MISERY INDEX WAS CONCEIVED BY OKUN IT WAS ACTUALLY QUITE LOW BY RECENT STANDARDS.

MISERY INDEX  IN 2013:

IN 2013 THE MISERY INDEX WAS STILL IN THE MODERATELY MISERABLE RANGE . IT WAS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE POSITION AT THE END OF THE BUSH 1 TERM AND SIMILAR TO THE MIDDLE OF BOTH OF BUSH 2 TERMS.  THE MISERY INDEX BEGAN THE YEAR AT 9.49% AND FINISHED THE YEAR AT 8.20%.  ALTHOUGH GOVERNMENT NUMBERS INDICATE THAT BOTH UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION ARE FALLING NON-GOVERNMENT NUMBERS INDICATE BOTH INFLATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT ARE HIGHER THAN REPORTED BY THE GOVERNMENT.

THE MISERY INDEX AND POLITICS

HISTORICALLY, A HIGH (OR CLIMBING) MISERY INDEX HAS BEEN A POLITICAL FOOTBALL RESULTING IN A CHANGE OF PRESIDENTS WHILE A LOW (OR FALLING) MISERY INDEX RESULTED IN REELECTION.

CARTER’S MISERY INDEX PEAKED AT 21.98% IN JUNE OF 1980.  HIS MISERY INDEX WAS STILL ABOVE 20% COME NOVEMBER 1980, SO REAGAN (R) WAS ABLE TO USE CARTER’S OWN WORDS AND THE MISERY INDEX AGAINST HIM IN THE FOLLOWING ELECTION AND MAKE CARTER A RARE ONE-TERM PRESIDENT.

IN EFFECT THE CRASHING STOCK MARKET LED EVERYONE TO FEEL POORER (AND MOST WERE POORER AS THE VALUE OF THEIR HOUSE AND ANY INVESTMENTS HAD DECLINED PRECIPITOUSLY) THUS THE MARKET TRUMPED THE MISERY INDEX ITSELF.  SO THE SOCIAL MOOD WAS READY FOR A CHANGE IN POLITICAL PARTIES. WORLDWIDE THIS SAME PHENOMENON APPEARS TO HOLD AS WELL, THIS SEEMS TO BE CONFIRMED BY THE ELECTIONS IN BOTH FRANCE AND GREECE WHERE THEIR ECONOMIES WERE FALTERING AND THE SEATED PRESIDENTS WERE BOTH VOTED OUT.

IN THE MOST RECENT 2012 ELECTION APPARENTLY OBAMA WAS SEEN AS PRESIDING OVER A FALLING MISERY INDEX AND SO HE WAS REELECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON HOW SOCIAL MOOD AFFECTS POLITICS AND THE ECONOMY SEE: SOCIAL MOOD RESOURCES AT YOUR FINGERTIPS.

SINCE INDIVIDUAL STATES’ POLITICAL PARTIES HAVE A MORE DIRECT INFLUENCE ON THEIR ECONOMICS… SEE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY STATE TO SEE WHICH POLITICAL PARTY HAS HAD THE BEST EFFECT ON EACH STATE’S UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.

IF YOU COUNT IN THE INCREASE IN POPULATION OVER THAT TIME PERIOD, THE SITUATION IS ACTUALLY GETTING WORSE.

IN APRIL 2013 THE OFFICIAL EMPLOYMENT NUMBER WAS 135.494 MILLION. THERE IS ALSO SOME EVIDENCE THAT THE NET GAIN IN EMPLOYMENT CAME FROM EMPLOYERS REDUCING HOURS FOR PART-TIME WORKERS AND HIRING OTHERS TO MAKE UP THE HOURS. SEE:  UNEMPLOYMENT, PART-TIME WORKERS AND OBAMACAREACCORDING TO THE U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS, IN NOVEMBER 2011 THERE WERE 133.172 MILLION EMPLOYED. IN JUNE 2012 THERE WERE 134.057 MILLION EMPLOYED AND IN SEPTEMBER 2012 THERE WERE 133.797 MILLION EMPLOYED. BUT THE “ADJUSTED” UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WENT FROM 8.7% IN NOVEMBER 2011 TO 7.8% IN SEPTEMBER 2012.

IN NOVEMBER 2012 THE TOTAL EMPLOYED WAS 135.069 MILLION AND THE ADJUSTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WAS 7.7%. ACCORDING TO THE BLS THE CIVILIAN NONINSTITUTIONAL POPULATION INCREASED BY 3.7 MILLION OVER THE LAST YEAR. SO POPULATION IS UP 3.7 MILLION, AND EMPLOYMENT IS UP ONLY 1.9 MILLION BUT SOMEHOW UNEMPLOYMENT IS DOWN? HOW CAN THE POPULATION INCREASE, THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE EMPLOYED INCREASED BY A SMALLER AMOUNT, BUT UNEMPLOYMENT STILL FALLS BY 1%? IT SHOULDN’T WORK THAT WAY! RECENTLY THE BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS ADJUSTED THE “UNADJUSTED” EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS FROM JULY 1991 FORWARD.

SEE IS THE GOVERNMENT FUDGING UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS? FOR MORE INFORMATION. SEE: CURRENT U.S. EMPLOYMENT DATA. 

THE MISERY INDEX IS DEFINED AS, A MEASURE OF THE ECONOMIC WELL-BEING OF THE COUNTRY, WHICH IS CALCULATED BY TAKING ADDING THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE AND THE INFLATION RATE.

RECENT MISERY INDEX NUMBERS

DATE	U-3 UNEMPLOYMENT	CPI-U INFLATION	MISERY INDEX
JAN-09	7.80%	0.03%	7.83%
FEB-09	8.20%	0.24%	8.44%
MAR-09	8.60%	-0.38%	8.22%
APR-09	8.90%	-0.74%	8.16%
MAY-09	9.40%	-1.28%	8.12%
JUN-09	9.50%	-1.43%	8.07%
JUL-09	9.50%	-2.10%	7.40%
AUG-09	9.70%	-1.48%	8.22%
SEP-09	9.80%	-1.29%	8.51%
OCT-09	10.10%	-0.18%	9.92%
NOV-09	9.90%	1.84%	11.74%
DEC-09	9.90%	2.72%	12.62%
JAN-10	9.70%	2.63%	12.33%
FEB-10	9.70%	2.14%	11.84%
MAR-10	9.70%	2.31%	12.01%
APR-10	9.80%	2.24%	12.04%
MAY-10	9.60%	2.02%	11.62%
JUN-10	9.50%	1.05%	10.55%
JUL-10	9.50%	1.24%	10.74%
AUG-10	9.60%	1.15%	10.75%
SEP-10	9.60%	1.14%	10.74%
OCT-10	9.70%	1.17%	10.87%
NOV-10	9.80%	1.14%	10.94%
DEC-10	9.40%	1.50%	10.90%
JAN-11	9.10%	1.63%	10.73%
FEB-11	9.00%	2.11%	11.11%
MAR-11	8.90%	2.68%	11.58%
APR-11	9.00%	3.16%	12.16%
MAY-11	9.00%	3.57%	12.57%
JUN-11	9.10%	3.56%	12.66%
JUL-11	9.10%	3.63%	12.73%
AUG-11	9.10%	3.77%	12.87%
SEP-11	9.00%	3.87%	12.87%
OCT-11	8.90%	3.53%	12.43%
NOV-11	8.70%	3.39%	12.09%
DEC-11	8.50%	2.96%	11.46%
JAN-12	8.30%	2.93%	11.23%
FEB-12	8.30%	2.87%	11.17%
MAR-12	8.20%	2.65%	10.85%
APR-12	8.10%	2.30%	10.40%
MAY-12	8.20%	1.70%	9.90%
JUN-12	8.20%	1.66%	9.86%
JUL-12	8.30%	1.41%	9.71%
AUG-12	8.10%	1.69%	9.79%
SEP-12	7.8%	1.99%	9.79%
OCT-12	7.9%	2.16%	10.06%
NOV-12	7.8%	1.76%	9.56%
DEC-12	7.8%	1.74%	9.54%
JAN-13	7.9%	1.59%	9.49%
FEB-13	7.7%	1.98%	9.68%
MAR-13	7.6%	1.47%	9.07%
APR-13	7.5%	1.06%	8.56%
MAY-13	7.6%	1.36%	8.96%
JUN-13	7.6%	1.75%	9.35%
JUL-13	7.4%	1.96%	9.36%
AUG-13	7.3%	1.52%	8.82%
SEP-13	7.2%	1.18%	8.38%
OCT-13	7.3%	0.96%	8.26%
NOV-13	7.0%	1.24%	8.24%
DEC-13	6.7%	1.50%	8.20%
JAN-14	6.6%	1.58%	8.18%
FEB-14	6.7%	1.13%	7.83%
MAR-14	6.7%	1.51%	8.21%
APR-14	6.3%	1.95%	8.25%
MAY-14	6.3%	2.13%	8.43%
JUN-14	6.1%	2.07%	8.17%
JUL-14	6.2%	1.99%	8.19%
AUG-14	6.1%	1.70%	7.80%
SEP-14	5.9%	1.66%	7.56%
OCT-14	5.8%	1.66%	7.46%
NOV-14	5.8%	1.32%	7.12%
DEC-14	5.6%	0.76%	6.36%
JAN-15	5.7%	0.09%	5.61%